The writer's market in 2010

I've been working on a book for a little while, I'll be posting more about it at a later date, but for right now I'm interested in learning what I can of the market for new authors.

There are many many ways to get in front of an audience, either by self publishing or by publishing co-ops such as Javalina Press in Austin, but is it possible at this time to break in with a mainstream publisher with a first effort? As bad as it has traditionally been, I've spoken to some folks that believe that it's gotten worse.

What I'm hearing is that, if you're not already published and have a reasonable track record, the odds on getting any sort of advance against the completion of any unfinished book, are between slim and nil. That means that instead of coming up with a good idea, punching out a couple of chapters, and putting together a proposal, now you have to essentially finish the book, then try to market the idea.

Part of this is the economy; It's certainly cheaper when you're on a budget to go to the library than the bookstore. But there's another dynamic that I hadn't appreciated that has more to do with what's going on in another segment of publishing, and that would be the newspaper business. With many many publications laying off or thinning out by other means, there is now what may be a surplus of writers, new to the book business, but with many years of writing experience behind them. Well, it worked for Tom Wolfe....